Wall Street Conventional Wisdom and Stock Market Corrections
Author: Steve Selengut
Posted by Consolidebt.Us
During every correction, I encourage investors to avoid the destructive inertia that results from trying to determine: how low can we go; how long will this last? Investors who add to their portfolios during downturns invariably experience higher Market Values during the next advance. For just as surely as there is a Santa Claus for every five year old, there is another “value stock” rally for every fingernail biting fifty-five year old. Value Stocks have entered the sixth month of a broad downturn, and nearly 50% of all Investment Grade companies are now down more than 15% from their highs. Seventy percent of those are down more than 20%. Working Capital Model users should be running out of cash about now, while they add more issues to their portfolios, and more shares to existing holdings. Investors know that good companies rarely close their doors, or even cut their dividends.
Corrections are as much a part of the normal Market Cycle as rallies, and they can be brought about by either bad news or good news. (Yes, that’s what I meant to say.) Investors always over-analyze when prices become weak and lose their common sense when prices are high, thus perpetuating the “buy high, sell low” Wall Street lunacy. Waiting for the perfect moment to jump into a falling market is as foolish a strategy as taking losses on investment grade companies and holding cash. Corrections in both Equity and Income securities produce the same kind of hysteria as a spring sale at Macy’s… but in reverse. The fundamental quality of value securities does not change simply because their prices fall in response to market conditions. When all value stocks are moving lower, it’s an opportunity, not a problem. When all [insert: bank, insurance, agriculture, oil, entertainment, travel, transportation, advertising] are lower, it’s an opportunity, not a problem.
During every correction, I’m amazed at the shocked reaction of the Media, the confused explanations emanating from the Market Gurus, and the incredibly poor advice streaming forth from the Oracles of Wall Street… every last one of them. It’s no wonder that the average investor is in a state of panic! If they could buy a new car, a new business suit, or a new house for half price, they would be ecstatic! Why does a lower price for a share of a high quality stock make them go bonkers? The Conventional Wisdom from Wall Street makes it so; the Conventional Wisdom from CPA land reinforces it; the Conventional Wisdom from financial advisors preys upon it. Experienced Investor Wisdom is boldly different. For example: (1) Corrections are always buying opportunities, the broader the correction, the better. Wall Street thrives on the fear and suffering. (2) Rallies are always selling opportunities. Wall Street would rather stroke your greed button with visions of upward only prices. Your accountant doesn’t want you to take profits, and has you convinced that losses are really better than gains. (3) Higher Interest rates are good for investors… so are lower interest rates. Wall Street doesn’t really care. They push short-term vehicles to address investors’ fear of price fluctuation, and shun simplex income producing strategies while they promote complex derivatives that always unwind badly. (4) The calendar year is of no particular investment relevance. (5) Investment performance analysis should be an objective based program monitor instead of 365-day horse race with irrelevant Market indicators. Wall Street used to agree with (4) and (5). Since then they have learned that they make more money from unhappy investors.
Repetition is good for your CPU, so forgive me for reinforcing what I’ve said in the face of every correction since 1979… if you don’t love corrections, you really don’t understand the financial markets. Don’t be insulted, very few financial professionals want you to see it this way and, in fact, Institutional Wall Street loves it when individual investors panic in the face of uncertainty. But uncertainty is the regulation playing field for investors, and hindsight isn’t welcome in the stadium. Rarely do corrections kill good companies, no matter how bad the news, how big the scandal, or how troubled the economic outlook. If you’ve been investing in quality companies and have a secure cash flow within your portfolios, you will weather any storm. Loss taking is never smart, savvy, or necessary… even if it cuts the tax bill. Buy more of lower priced good companies while maintaining smart diversification according to the Working Capital Model. Add to lower priced income securities to reduce the cost per share. Make your retirement plan contributions yesterday!
There is an Investment Mindset Solution for the problems that most people have dealing with corrections, recessions, inflation and the Red Sox. Bad news creates opportunities; so does good news. I’ve never understood why yard-sale prices in the stock market are so scary. And recession? Most people don’t realize that a recession is just two consecutive quarters of lower GDP. Not a big deal until it happens, and then, really good things get done to fix it! In recent years, Wall Street and the media have turned the process of investing into a competitive event. What was once a long-term, goal-directed activity has become a series of monthly and quarterly sprints. The direction of the market isn’t nearly as important as the actions we take in anticipation of the next change in direction. Performance evaluation needs to be “rethunk” in terms of cycles.
Currency Trading Proceed With Caution
Author: Mika Hamilton
The key to a successful portfolio is diversification. One of many areas an individual can invest in is currency trading. Using the foreign-exchange rate, two currencies are compared to determine one currencies value compared to the other. The simple laws of supply and demand apply even in the foreign exchange market. A currencies value will increase when demand rises above the currently available supply.
When demand falls below the available supply the value will decrease. The demand for any particular currency is driven by speculation on the future of that currency. The speculation is based on factors like the gross domestic product (GDP) and business activity. In general, the higher the interest rates the higher the return on an investment. The foreign-exchange market exchanges billions of dollars on a daily basis. Commonly a bank is used for any forex trading to ensure that exchange rates are accurate.
As an investment option, currency trading can be profitable, but as always it is recommended that any sort of investing is done by using professional services. In the case of foreign currency trading, this is especially necessary. It is strongly recommended that a bank be used for the exchange of currency. In the last few years, a number of trading scams have duped traders out of millions of dollars. Forex scams are carried out in several different ways. Primarily it involves a broker assuring potential clients large profits either by selling useless software or managing accounts in a way that serves only their purposes. The reason why forex scams are able to operate for the most part is because the foreign exchange market is poorly regulated.
Foreign exchange opportunities that strike a potential investor as too good to be true usually are. No company can predict what a currency will do and any that predict large profits in the near future should not be trusted. Being approached with opportunities billed as having no risk for the investor should be considered a fraud. If being encouraged to trade on margin (the act of borrowing money for purchase of stocks or currency) can greatly increase risk. Always investigate any company’s background before doing any business with them and especially prior to transferring any money either over the Internet or via postal services. If a brokerage firm won’t divulge the path of their trades then be particularly wary.
Currency trading can indeed be a profitable form of investing, but those without access to large amounts of money will hardly see any notable gains unless taking large risks like investing in a nation whose currency isn’t recognized by the world banks.